Srinagar, Oct 11: The upcoming Budgam assembly bypoll is shaping up as a high-stakes, four-cornered contest involving the National Conference (NC), People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Apni Party and AIP.
The seat fell vacant after Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, who had contested and won from both Budgam and Ganderbal in the 2024 J&K Assembly elections, chose to retain the Ganderbal seat and resigned from Budgam.
As per the schedule issued by the Election Commission of India, the election notification will be issued on October 13, with the last date for filing nominations on October 20, scrutiny on October 22, and withdrawal deadline on October 24. Polling is slated for November 11, and counting will take place on November 14.
So far, PDP has announced Aga Muntazir Mehdi as its candidate, while AIP has fielded Nazir Ahmad Khan. The Apni Party is reportedly considering Muntazir Mohiuddin, though its ticket is not yet finalized. NC is yet to confirm its candidate publicly, but speculation is rife that its choice will hinge on whether its MP Aga Ruhullah Mehdi throws his weight behind the party’s pick. There would be some more candidates but the main contest seemed to be between these four parties.
Ruhullah enjoys considerable influence and a strong voter base in Budgam, and his decision either to actively campaign or remain neutral could swing the contest.
Political observers say that the NC’s prospects could be complicated if Ruhullah stays distant. The party may struggle to mobilize its core support base in Budgam unless it can secure his backing. Conversely, a united show of strength by all factions could fragment the vote significantly and make the outcome unpredictable.
In the 2024 general election for the Budgam assembly seat, Omar Abdullah (NC) defeated PDP’s Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi by a margin of 18,485 votes. That victory underlined Omar’s appeal in Budgam and reflected the deep organisational strength of NC in the constituency.
With four significant contenders in the fray this time, the bypoll is likely to test not just party loyalties but personal influence and local alignments. Voter turnout, campaign alliances, and ground mobilisation by the candidates will be key. The role of Ruhullah, in particular, is being watched closely, since his support or non-interference could tilt the electoral arithmetic in a closely contested fight.
The bypoll in Budgam is already being viewed as a bellwether for strength and influence in central Kashmir, and all eyes will be on how parties strategize and mobilize in the weeks ahead.
