Analysis: BJP’s Kashmir Strategy: Consolidate Non-Dynasty Vote, Back Local Parties

Srinagar, Apr 21: In a strategic move ahead of the Lok Sabha polls in Jammu and Kashmir, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has decided not to field its own candidates for the three parliamentary seats in the Kashmir division – Anantnag-Rajouri, Srinagar, and Baramulla. Instead, the party has chosen to extend its support to local non-dynasty political outfits, signalling an attempt to consolidate the non-traditional vote bank in the Valley.

The Anantnag-Rajouri Constituency:

One of the key battlegrounds is the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency, which encompasses voting segments from both the Kashmir and Jammu divisions. While the National Conference (NC) has fielded its prominent Gujjar/Bakarwal leader, Mian Altaf Ahmad, the BJP enjoys substantial support in the Poonch and Rajouri districts. The Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party, headed by Syed Altaf Bukhari, has nominated Zafar Iqbal Manhas, a Pahari community member, and is likely to receive the BJP’s backing.
The Srinagar Seat:

In the Srinagar constituency, the NC has fielded Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, a Shia Muslim candidate from Budgam district. However, the majority of voters in this seat are Sunni Muslims, who have historically supported Sunni candidates. The BJP is expected to throw its weight behind Ashraf Mir of the Apni Party in this constituency.
The Baramulla Battlefield:
The Baramulla constituency is shaping up to be a fierce contest, with Sajad Gani Lone of the People’s Conference (PC) taking on Omar Abdullah of the NC and Fayaz Mir of the PDP. Lone is anticipated to receive support from the BJP cadre and has also sought the backing of the Apni Party to consolidate what he refers to as the “anti-NC vote.” The NC has won this seat ten times in the past, but Lone aims to unite the divided anti-incumbency votes to challenge the party’s dominance.
The Role of Pahari and Gujjar/Bakarwal Communities:
The Pahari and Gujjar/Bakarwal communities are expected to play a crucial role in determining the outcome of these elections. The BJP’s decision to grant Scheduled Tribe status to the Pahari community and the NC’s fielding of prominent Gujjar/Bakarwal leaders could influence the voting patterns of these communities.
Promises of Pragmatism and Achievable Objectives:
Syed Altaf Bukhari, the Apni Party leader, has expressed confidence in appealing to voters with promises of achievable objectives and pragmatic governance, rather than “hollow slogans and promises.” He has stated his support for the Prime Minister and dismissed allegations of hidden nationalism or semi-separatist politics.
The Divide Between Srinagar and Delhi:
While Bukhari’s emphasis on statehood, land rights, employment, education, tourism, and healthcare may resonate with voters seeking tangible progress, the traditional appeal of the NC and PDP to the region’s sentiments should not be underestimated. The outcome of these elections will provide insights into the changing political dynamics of the region and the evolving aspirations of its voters.
As the campaign intensifies, all eyes are on whether the BJP’s strategy of supporting non-dynasty parties, the influence of the Pahari and Gujjar/Bakarwal communities, and the divide between Srinagar and Delhi will shape the electoral landscape in the Kashmir division.