Srinagar, June 1: The much-awaited exit polls were released on Saturday evening after the final phase of the Lok Sabha elections 2024 concluded, and the results have set the stage for a potential resounding victory for the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). At least four major surveys have predicted a hat-trick for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the NDA, indicating a continuation of the ‘Modi wave’ that has swept across the nation.
As the clock struck 6:30 PM, national television channels began unveiling the numbers, forecasting the performance of various political parties based on the exit polls, which were barred from being released until the conclusion of the electoral process.
Among the prominent exit polls, India News-D-Dynamics, Jan ki Baat, Republic TV-P Marq, and Republic TV-Martize have all projected a comfortable victory for the NDA, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The exit polls have come as a shot in the arm for the NDA, bolstering its confidence in securing another term at the Centre. However, opposition parties are expected to question the accuracy of these projections, setting the stage for a heated political debate in the coming days.
While exit polls have historically been known to deviate from actual results, their projections have undoubtedly set the tone for what promises to be an eventful and closely watched result day.
As per Jan ki Baat, NDA is getting 362-392 while INDIA 141-161 and others are securing just 10-20 seats only while India News-D-Dynamics is predicting 371 seats for NDA and 125 only for INDIA while others according to the survey will get 47 seats only.
Republic TV-P Marq is predicting 359 seats of NDA, 154 for INDIA and 30 for others while Republic TV-Martize is predicting 353-368 seats of NDA, 118-133 for INDIA and 43-48 for others.
However, it must be noted that exit polls have not always been accurate.
If exit polls are to be believed, the NDA’s mission of above 400 seats has not been achieved while the Congress has claimed that it will win 295 seats in the ongoing polls.
As far as Jammu & Kashmir is concerned, the surveys show that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is securing two seats of Jammu division including Jammu and Udhampur while INDIA Alliance is winning all the three seats of Kashmir division.
Nonetheless, some of the surveys show PDP winning one seat from the Kashmir division.
Pertinently, India’s biggest state in terms of Lok Sabha seats will once again favour BJP-led NDA alliance over others and according to Matrize survey, the saffron party could make substantial gains in Uttar Pradesh. Matrize survey predicted BJP to get 69-74 seats in Uttar Pradesh, while opposition’s INDIA bloc could stay limited to only 6-11 seats.
In Delhi, the BJP is predicted to make a clean sweep yet again, according to News Nation exit polls while INDIA alliance, in which AAP and Congress have shared seats to take on BJP is predicted to draw a blank.
In Madhya Pradesh, BJP could make a clean sweep, according to India Today Axis My India. In terms of seats, NDA alliance is predicted to get between 28-29 seats, INDIA bloc between 0-1 seats. In terms of vote share, BJP may get 61% votes, while Congress 33% and others only 6%.
In a big surprise, BJP is predicted to surge ahead of the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, according to exit polls. India News- D-Dynamics predicted BJP to get 21 seats, while Trinamool could be limited to 19 seats. Likewise, Republic Bharat-Matrize predicted BJP to get 21-25 seats and Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool could get between 16-20 seats.
In Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state Gujarat, BJP is predicted to make a clean sweep in all 26 seats, according to TimesNow’s ETG.
Also, BJP is predicted to continue with its impressive run in Chhattisgarh after assembly polls. The saffron party could make huge gain this time. As per India News – D-Dynamics, NDA may get 10 seats, INDIA bloc 1, while others won’t be able open their account in the state.
In Bihar, NDA won’t get a clean sweep as many BJP leaders had claimed and INDIA bloc is predicted to make a notable comeback. According to IndiaToday-MyAxis, NDA could get NDA 22-23 seats and INDIA bloc between 7-10 seats.
Exit polls have predicted that the BJP-led NDA was poised to make significant gains in Kerala’s Lok Sabha seats.
According to the Axis My India exit poll, the BJP-led NDA was anticipated to secure 2-4 seats in Tamil Nadu, while the INDIA bloc, comprising the DMK and Congress, was projected to win 33-37 seats. Conversely, the News 18 exit poll indicated NDA’s potential to win 1-3 seats in Tamil Nadu, with the INDIA bloc possibly securing 36-39 seats.
In Kerala, the Axis My India exit poll indicated that the BJP-led NDA could secure 2-3 seats, with the Congress-led UDF expected to win 17-18 seats and the LDF, led by the CPI-M, potentially securing 0-1 seat.
These exit polls suggested a projected vote share of 27% for the NDA in Kerala, marking the party’s highest in the state. Predicted vote shares for the LDF and UDF were 29% and 41%, respectively.
Additionally, the News 18 exit poll predicted 1-3 seats for the NDA in Kerala, while projecting 15-18 seats for the UDF and 2-5 seats for the LDF.
The Times Now-ETG forecasted one seat for the BJP in Kerala, with the UDF and LDF anticipated to win 14-15 and four seats, respectively. Kerala holds 20 seats in the lower house of Parliament.
