Analysis: Srinagar LS Poll: Can NC hold onto its stronghold?

Srinagar, Apr 27: Srinagar Parliamentary Constituency has traditionally been a stronghold for the National Conference (NC), with the party emerging victorious in a staggering 12 out of the last 15 Lok Sabha elections held here since 1967. As the upcoming general elections loom large, all eyes are on whether the NC can maintain its iron grip over this crucial seat, despite facing a challenging multi-cornered contest involving major political forces in the Valley.

The Srinagar constituency, which encompasses the old city and some rural pockets of the region, has overwhelmingly reposed its faith in the NC over the decades, making it a pivotal battleground for the party’s sustained dominance. However, with shifting political dynamics and the entry of new players, the upcoming polls are set to witness an intense battle for one of the most coveted Parliamentary seats in Jammu and Kashmir.

According to the details available with Morning Kashmir, NC candidates since the tenure of Bakshi Ghulam Muhammad in 1967 have won the parliamentary elections 12 times and remained out of power thrice only so far.
In 1967, Bakshi Ghulam Muhammad emerged victorious from the seat by defeating the then ruling Congress nominee, Ali Mohammed Tariq, by a big margin.

In the next Lok Sabha polls in 1971, S A Shamim won the elections as the Independent candidate supported by “Mahaz Raishumari Front” headed by Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah.
Begum Akbar Jehan Abdullah, Dr Farooq Abdullah, Abdul Rashid Kabuli and Muhammad Shafi Bhat won the simultaneous five Parliamentary polls in the years 1977, 1980, 1983, 84 and 89.
In 1996 elections, NC didn’t field their candidate from the constituency in which Ghulam Muhammad Mir Magami, Indian National Congress (INC) candidate emerged victorious.
The NC however, emerged victorious four times consecutively from the constituency again in 1998, 1999, 2004 and 2009. Omar Abdullah emerged victorious in the polls thrice in 1998, 1999 and 2004 while Dr Farooq Abdullah won elections from the constituency in 2009.
However, the party has witnessed a defeat only once in the 2014 elections when Tariq Hameed Karra, the then candidate of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) defeated Dr. Farooq Abdullah of National Conference by more than 40000 votes.
Karra in the meantime resigned as Member of Parliament in 2016 following which Dr Farooq Abdullah was once again elected as the Member of Parliament from the constituency in 2017 bi-elections, which was conducted after the seat remained vacant following the resignation of Karra.
In the previous elections in 2019, Dr Farooq Abdullah was once again elected as the Member of Parliament from the constituency and is still representing the constituency.
The previous scenario might have been in the favour of NC candidates, but the upcoming polls, slated to held on May 13, 2024, is going to witness a tough competition as 29 candidates are in the race while the nominations of 10 candidates have been rejected by the Returning Officer 02 Parliamentary Constituency.
Among the 29 candidates, the tough contest is expected between INDI Alliance candidate, who is National Conference (NC) leader, Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi and Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) Waheed Parra while Apni Party candidate Muhammad Ashraf Mir, who has already defeated NC Vice President Omar Abdullah in the last assembly elections, held in the year 2014, is also vying for the seat.
Apni Party, having the base in several constituencies in Srinagar, is expected to attract a large chunk of voters in the 2024 elections.