Political AnalysisEr Rashid’s Return: Will His Bail Shift Kashmir’s Political Ground?

Syed Snowber 

Srinagar, Sep 11: The interim bail granted to Engineer Rashid, a jailed Lok Sabha member and leader of the Awami Ittihad Party (AIP), by a Delhi court is likely to have profound implications for the political landscape in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). This development comes at a critical juncture, with the upcoming J&K Assembly elections on the horizon, and it has the potential to alter the dynamics of electoral politics in the region.
The Return of a Controversial Figure
Engineer Rashid’s political journey has been unconventional and polarizing. Known for his outspoken and combative style, Rashid has often positioned himself as a fierce critic of both the establishment in New Delhi and the mainstream regional parties in J&K, such as the National Conference (NC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Peoples Conference (PC). His release on interim bail until October 2—coinciding with the final phase of the Assembly elections—could be a game-changer in the region’s political calculus.
In his last electoral outing, Rashid contested the Lok Sabha election from jail against prominent political heavyweights like former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah of the NC and Sajad Gani Lone of the PC in the Baramulla Lok Sabha constituency. Despite his incarceration, he won the election decisively, while Abdullah finished a distant second and Lone trailed further behind. Rashid’s physical presence in rallies and meetings in the upcoming elections could reignite his campaign’s momentum, especially in the Baramulla constituency, where he had a clear lead in 14 out of 16 Assembly segments.
Symbol of Resistance or a Political Proxy?
The interim bail granted to Rashid has sparked controversy, with NC, PDP, and PC alleging that he is being used as a “proxy” by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the central government to fragment the vote bank of these regional parties. However, such claims appear to oversimplify the complex political dynamics at play in Kashmir. Rashid’s continued popularity, despite his imprisonment since 2019, indicates a strong base of support that sees him as an alternative to the established political order in Kashmir.
Drawing parallels between Rashid’s release and the release of Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah, the founder of NC, in 1968, the piece underscores how perceptions can change over time. While Sheikh Abdullah was hailed as the “Lion of Kashmir” upon his release, today’s political rivals are quick to label Rashid as a “proxy” of the Centre. Such narratives could backfire if the electorate perceives Rashid’s release as a judicial vindication rather than a political maneuver.
A Challenge to Traditional Kashmir-Centric Politics
Engineer Rashid’s release poses a direct challenge to the established political parties in the Valley. If public sympathy for Rashid, who has been perceived as a victim of political persecution, gains traction, it could spell trouble for the NC, PDP, and PC. The interim bail is more than just a temporary reprieve; it serves as a litmus test for the popularity and relevance of these traditional parties in a rapidly changing political environment.
Rashid’s AIP, which ran on a single-issue manifesto during the Lok Sabha polls—calling for his release—demonstrates his ability to galvanize support on unconventional grounds. In the context of the Assembly elections, his campaign could focus on broader issues like governance, corruption, and regional autonomy, tapping into the frustrations of a populace disillusioned with the mainstream political players. The voters’ verdict in electing him from jail suggests that they were not swayed by allegations of him being a proxy candidate, and this narrative might not hold much sway in the upcoming elections either.
Potential Shifts in Electoral Dynamics
The key question now is whether Rashid’s presence on the ground can alter the electoral dynamics in J&K. Given that he has been incarcerated for a longer period than any of his political rivals in the Valley, he could emerge as a symbol of resistance and resilience against perceived injustices. His interim release offers him a critical window to reconnect with his base, mobilize his supporters, and project himself as a viable alternative to the NC, PDP, and PC.
Moreover, dismissing Rashid as merely an “agent of the Centre” overlooks the complex motivations and sentiments of Kashmiri voters. His previous election victory while in jail is a testament to the fact that the electorate is willing to embrace unconventional candidates who challenge the status quo. If Rashid can effectively leverage his time out of jail to highlight his commitment to the region’s issues, he could reshape the political narrative in Kashmir.
Conclusion: A New Contender in Kashmir’s Political Arena
The interim bail of Engineer Rashid has the potential to disrupt the electoral status quo in J&K. As a political outsider who defies traditional party lines, Rashid could attract voters disenchanted with both the regional parties and the central government. His release may well set the stage for a new phase in Kashmir’s political history, where unconventional leaders challenge entrenched political structures. Whether or not this translates into electoral success will depend on Rashid’s ability to harness his support base and articulate a compelling vision for the future of J&K.
One thing is clear: dismissing Rashid as a mere “proxy” or “agent” may prove to be an underestimation that traditional parties in Kashmir can ill afford. His presence, even if for a short period, is bound to change the dynamics of Kashmir’s electoral politics, creating ripples that may be felt for years to come.

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